2013-14 NFL Season in Review (Wide Receiver Edition)

An Evaluation of Pre-Season ADP and Post-Season Fantasy Points Results

For the Wide Receiver position I will be utilizing both a standard scoring system and a point per reception (PPR) scoring system: 6 points per Receiving/Rushing TD, 1 point for every 10 yards receiving/rushing, and 1 point per reception in the PPR scoring system.

WR Standard	Points	Games	PPG	Back
Josh Gordon	227	14	16.24	0
Calvin Johnson	219	14	15.66	0.58
D. Thomas	227	16	14.19	2.05
AJ Green	209	16	13.04	3.2
Brandon Marshall	206	16	12.84	3.4
Antonio Brown	205	16	12.81	3.43
Dez Bryant	201	16	12.59	3.65
Alshon Jeffrey	195	16	12.16	4.08
Eric Decker	193	16	12.05	4.19
DeSean Jackson	187	16	11.71	4.53

Of all the positions that we have reviewed so far Wide Receiver is definitely the most bunched together. It is bunched both at the top with 1st and 2nd WRs in PPG being separated by less than a point in both PPR and standard scoring.  Throughout the rest of the position the separation is far less than any of the other positions, in fact only 10.11 PPG separated the 1st WR in a standard league from the 45th WR.  That 10.11 PPG difference is equivalent to the difference between the 1st and 19th RBs in standard leagues, and PPR leagues are not much different.  Altogether the top 7 WRs in a standard league were separated by 3.65 PPG.  The next 11 WRs, from the 8th ranked Alshon Jeffrey through the 19th ranked TY Hilton, the separation was 3.42 PPG.  Looking back at the comparison between RB and WR with 1st through 19th at RB being separated by 10.11 PPG, here we can see that 1st through 19th at WR is separated by 7.07 PPG.  With only 10.11 PPG separating the top 45 WRs, as I mentioned above, a bit of simple math shows us that from the 19th WR through the 45th only a 3.04 PPG difference exists.  

WR PPR	Points	Games	PPG	Back
Josh Gordon	314	14	22.46	0
Calvin Johnson	303	14	21.66	0.8
D. Thomas	319	16	19.94	2.52
Antonio Brown	315	16	19.68	2.78
AJ Green	307	16	19.16	3.3
Brandon Marshall	306	16	19.09	3.37
Dez Bryant	294	16	18.4	4.06
Alshon Jeffrey	284	16	17.73	4.73
Andre Johnson	280	16	17.5	4.96
Eric Decker	280	16	17.5	4.96

On the PPR side of things, a quite similar split exists with the top 7 being bunched together again but now being separated by 4.06 PPG.  In regards to the WR position there is not a lot of difference in overall trends from standard to PPR.  The only big difference that we see comes in WRs ranked 20th through 45th.  In a standard league this group is separated by 3.04 PPG, however in a PPR that difference jumps to 5.45 PPG.  This statistic makes sense because the added points for receptions in a PPR pushes up WRs who catch a larger volume of catches, so players are a bit less bunched.




Conclusion on Wide Recievers

Wide Receiver had the same level of volatility inside the top 12 as the running back position did last year, with only 50% (6) of the WRs drafted in the top 12 finishing inside the top 12.  However, where RBs seemed to fall outside the top 12 by quite a bit, 2 of the 6 WRs that were drafted in the top 12 at WR (Larry Fitzgerald and Vincent Jackson) still finished as top 17 WRs.  That value is quite close to the value they were drafted for, falling from a WR1 in 12 team leagues to a high end WR2 status.  For the other 4 WRs who were drafted in the top 12 but finished outside of the top 12, injuries had a big effect on each of them throughout the year.  Randall Cobb and Julio Jones missed over 10 games apiece, while Roddy White and Victor Cruz played through injuries and struggled to perform at one hundred percent all year.  However, despite the injuries and the 50% return on top 12 drafted WRs performing with top 12 production, WR seemed to have the best return on investment in regards to the top guys taken at the position.  Of the 6 WRs who were taken on average in the first 2 rounds of fantasy drafts last year only Julio Jones finished outside the top 7 at the WR position.  Julio, who suffered from a season ending injury, was on pace to finish in the top 3 at WR when he went down and possibly could have even finished 1st.  So from that it is easy to see that there is elite value at the top of the WR position, and unlike the RB position the volatility is drastically lower for those few elite players.  

 

Looking back over the top 12 at both RB and WR positions it is easy to claim that each position is equally volatile because only half of the top 12 at either position finished in the top 12 in fantasy points at the end of the season.  However, amongst those players who were considered elite at the position (6 players, the top half of the top 12) WRs were 5 for 6 at returning relatively elite production based on their draft position, meanwhile RB had the same 50/50 shot of production inside the top 6 in ADP with only half maintaining a top 10 status. 

How will this affect the way I draft Wide Receivers in 2014-15
 

There are two big takeaways from this analysis regarding the wide receiver position.  The first is that, more than any other position, wide receivers stay bunched together in their production.  They have the least point differential of any of the 4 major positions (QB, RB, WR, and TE).  

The other big take away is that even though the top 12 had a turnover of 50%, the top 6 had only 1 WR who finished outside the top 7 and that was due to season ending injury.  The elite WRs seem to have the greatest likelihood of any of the position (especially greater than RB) at reproducing elite stats on a year to year basis.  Looking at this information, there is probably no safer (even if this is a word that means little in fantasy) position to use an early pick on than this elite crop of WR talent. The downside to that though is that WR also is the most bunched together position.  If there is an opportunity to get 2 of these top WRs on a fantasy team of yours next year it’ll be a great way to start your draft from a consistency and avoiding volatility stand point, but with the limited upside versus the rest of the WR field, with the position being the most bunched together on a PPG basis, it’ll be important to hit on players at RB, QB, and TE after the first two rounds in order to have the value of those early round WRs (1^st and 2^nd round) truly pay off.