2013-14 NFL Season in Review (Tight End Edition)

An Evaluation of Pre-Season ADP and Post-Season Fantasy Points Results

For the tight end position I will be utilizing both a standard scoring system and a point per reception (PPR) scoring system: 6 points per Receiving/Rushing TD, 1 point for every 10 yards receiving/rushing, and 1 point per reception in the PPR scoring system.

The tight end position was ruled by Jimmy Graham, and Jimmy Graham alone, in 2013.  However with surprises like Julius Thomas and Jordon Cameron coming from outside the top 120 in ADP to perform as top 5 TEs, the landscape for this upcoming NFL season is looking a bit different than it did a year ago.  In a standard league, Jimmy Graham averaged 13.59 PPG which was 2.86 PPG over the next closest total points gainer in Vernon Davis.  Of the top 3 TEs in total points all were in the top 4 in PPG, however the one outlier in PPG last year was Rob Gronkowki who, while playing only 7 games last year, finished 16th in total points. Rob Gronkowski’s PPG average only fell 1.7 PPG behind Jimmy Graham, so in his very limited time on the field Gronkowski was still the 2nd TE on a PPG basis while fighting off injuries and definitely being less than a hundred percent.  Vernon Davis, who finished 2nd overall at TE, finished at 4th in PPG being both Gronkowski and Julius Thomas.  Outside of the top 4 in PPG (Gronk, Thomas, and Davis) every other TE fell 4.5 PPG or more behind Graham.  

Tight Ends	POINTS	PPG
Jimmy Graham	218	13.59
Rob Gronkowski	83	11.89
Julius Thomas	151	10.77
Vernon Davis	161	10.73
Jordan Cameron	134	8.91
Tony Gonzalez	136	8.49

When looking at TE in a PPR Graham still stays on top of the pack, as well.  The PPR rankings for tight end are not very different from the standard ranks with the exception of Tony Gonzalez moving into 2nd in total points because he is the only other top 5 TE, besides Graham, to play all 16 games. Tony G still fell over 5 PPG behind Graham though cementing Grahams spot as the top TE in fantasy.   

Conclusion on Tight Ends

We see much of the same sort of conclusions with the tight end position that we do when reviewing the quarterback position, the elite tight ends (Graham and Gronkowski) will perform with elite value when they are on the field.  TE also seems to be the position with the greatest amount of turn over with 5 of the top 20 TEs in both standard and PPR not even being drafted in the top 32 at their position prior to the start of last season.  That number also doesn’t count Julius Thomas who was a top 3 fantasy TE last year while having an ADP of 20 at TE prior to last season.

 

How will this affect the way I draft Tight Ends in 2014-15 

Looking forward to the 2014-15 fantasy season, Jimmy Graham’s value may be higher than ever.  Graham finished the 2013-14 season as the #1 fantasy TE, but he also scored in the top 4 of fantasy WRs in a standard format and amongst the top 7 in a PPR.  Just those statistics alone should have him going in the first two rounds, and that would be if he was a WR.  Graham should be a late 1st early 2nd round pick in basically any format that has a designated spot for TE.  In any TE premium leagues, such as leagues that are 1.5 PPR for TEs, Graham has got to be a consideration in the top 10. After Graham, Rob Gronkowski is likely the most talented of the TE pool but with him only playing 7 games last year he’ll be a gamble only worth taking if he falls in drafts.  Outside of Graham and Gronk, there is the pair of TEs in Julius Thomas and Vernon Davis who should be off the board in the top 3 or 4 TEs.  I likely won’t be going after Davis; however I’m going to be all over Thomas with Eric Decker on the way out in Denver.  Right now, looking towards next year, I would look to target Graham if I’m picking in the second half of round one or if he is still available in round two.  Outside of Graham and Thomas I’ll be looking to target a few guys who fell outside the top 20 last year, since I feel that TE has some of the greatest turn over at any position.  Similar to my strategy regarding the quarterback position, if I do not get one of the elite guys (in this case I’m including Thomas as elite, projecting towards next season) I will likely be waiting to be one of the last to take a TE. There are a few players that I could make an exception for based on talent and/or situation, but I’ll get more into that when I post initial rankings and early sleepers.