2013-14 NFL Season in Review (Running Back Edition)

An Evaluation of Pre-Season ADP and Post-Season Fantasy Points Results

For the Running back position I will be utilizing both a standard scoring system and a point per reception (PPR) scoring system: 6 points per Receiving/Rushing TD, 1 point for every 10 yards receiving/rushing, and 1 point per reception in the PPR scoring system.

Regardless of whether it was in a PPR or standard scoring league, last season Jamaal Charles was the best of the best at the running back position.  He performed head and shoulders over the field, even outscoring the 2nd best RB in standard leagues, LeSean McCoy, by over 3 PPG.  In a PPR Charles grasp on the #1 spot was even greater, outscoring the 2nd best RB in a PPR, Matt Forte, by over 4 PPG.  This gap at RB in a PPR is even larger than the gap between Peyton Manning and Drew Brees at quarterback in a season where Manning broke all sorts of records.  In fact, in a PPR, Charles scored almost as many PPG as Manning.  This alone should cement the reasoning for why RB is the first position taken in almost every fantasy football draft year after year.  

Standard Scoring	POINTS PER GAME
Jamaal Charles	20.53
LeSean McCoy	17.41
Matt Forte	16.46
Marshwan Lynch	14.96
Knowshon Moreno	14.79
DeMarco Murray	14.65
Adrian Peterson	14.55
Eddie Lacy	13.38
Reggie Bush	13.23
Le'Veon Bell	13.22
Chris Johnson	12.39
Fred Jackson	11.73
Ryan Mathews	11.53
Zac Stacy	11.24
Shane Vareen	11
Frank Gore	10.93
Arian Foster	10.81
Alfred Morris	10.58
Giovani Bernard	10.43
Joique Bell	10.23

In a standard scoring league the gap between Charles and McCoy, the number 1 and 2 RBs, was 3.12 PPG.  That 3.12 PPG gap is larger than the gap the separates the next six running backs.  The #7 RB last year was Adrian Peterson who finished the year with an average of 14.55 PPG, which fell 2.86 PPG behind McCoy.  The next similar (roughly 3 PPG) gap comes between the next 6 finishers at the running back position as well; Adrian Peterson who was ranked 7th in PPG and Ryan Mathews who finished 13th in PPG at the running back position were separated by 3.02 PPG.  From there the running back position becomes a bit more bunched together with over twice as many players, 13, being within 3 PPG of Ryan Mathews.  Rashard Mendenhall and Andre Ellington were the main two backs in Arizona’s backfield last season and by the end of the year both tied in total fantasy point production with 126 points over 15 games for a PPG total of 8.42, Ellington and Mendenhall fell exactly 3.11 PPG behind Mathews. From Ellington and Mendenhall through the 45th ranked running back, Daniel Thomas, 20 running backs were separated by less than 3 PPG (2.89).

PPR Scoring	POINTS PER GAME
Jamaal Charles	25.2
Matt Forte	21.08
LeSean McCoy	20.66
Knowshon Moreno	18.54
DeMarco Murray	18.44
Marshwan Lynch	17.21
Reggie Bush	17.09
Shane Vareen	16.81
Le'Veon Bell	16.68
Adrian Peterson	16.62
Eddie Lacy	16.17
Chris Johnson	15.01
Fred Jackson	14.67
Danny Woodhead	13.96
Giovani Bernard	13.96
Arian Foster	13.56
Joique Bell	13.54
Pierre Thomas	13.2
Ryan Mathews	13.15
Zac Stacy	13.1

In a PPR format the running back landscape looks a bit similar to how it does in a standard format with one exception being that the tier (a tier is a grouping of players, in this case grouped by PPG) after the #7 running back is twice as large as it is in a standard league, extending to the 20th ranked RB instead of the 13th.  From Charles to Forte, 1 to 2 in a PPR, there was a difference of 4.12 PPG, the next similar break occurs between Forte and the 7th ranked RB in a PPR, Reggie Bush.  The difference between Forte and Bush is 3.99 PPG, the next jump that is close to 4 PPG is the jump referenced before from the 7th ranked RB in Bush to the 20th ranked RB in PPG, Zac Stacy.  The difference between Bush and Stacy is ironically also exactly 3.99 PPG, which oddly enough is the exact same difference between Stacy and the 36th ranked RB in a PPR, Stevan Ridley.

Conclusion on Running Back

 

Running back continues to be one of the most, if not the most, difficult positions to predict on a year to year basis. Of the RBs whose ADP was in the top 12 at their position, only 6 (50%) of them finished the year in the top 12.  That statistic goes both for PPR and standard scoring leagues.  As we’ll see in my review of the WR position this 50/50 shot at predicting a top 12 producer is just as difficult for WR as it is for RB.  The running back position had 6 players whose ADP’s were in the top 12 but who failed to produce as top 12 backs, all 6 fell outside of the top 20 in both PPR and standard scoring at the running back position.  3 of the RBs who’s ADP were in the top 12 actually performed outside of the top 30 at RB (Richardson, Foster, and Martin).  Injuries and rookies struggling in their second year seemed to be the two biggest reasons RBs drafted in the top 12 failed to produce in the top 12.  Of the 6 who failed to produce to the level they were drafted 3 were 2nd year backs; Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, and Alfred Morris.  Martin missed 10 games last year, and the other 3 backs who fell outside of their projected top 12 status all struggled with injuries as well.  Arian Foster missed half the season, while Ray Rice and CJ Spiller played through injury only missing one game apiece but never really playing at 100%.  

QB: Peyton Manning	25.62	0
QB: Russell Wilson	16.89	8.73
RB (PPR): Jamaal Charles	25.2	0
RB (PPR): Chris Johnson	15.01	10.11
RB (ST): Jamaal Charles	20.53	0
RB (ST): Fred Jackson	11.73	8.8
WR (ST): Josh Gordon	16.24	0
WR (ST): Andre Johnson	10.67	5.57
WR (PPR): Josh Gordon	22.46	0
WR (PPR): DeSean Jackson	16.84	5.62
TE (PPR): Jimmy Graham	18.97	0
TE (PPR): Delanie Walker	10.21	8.76
TE (ST): Jimmy Graham	13.59	0
TE (ST): Garrett Graham	6.35	7.24

 Running backs had the largest jump of any of the positions from 1st to 12th in terms of PPG, with a difference of 10.11 PPG between Charles and Chris Johnson in a PPR.  Even at quarterback the difference was less with Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson being separated by 8.73 PPG.  At the WR position the difference between 1st and 12th was nearly half of what it was for RB with 5.62 PPG separating them.  This really helps show why RB is the top position drafted every year, not just because of position scarcity but also because the top RBs are just so much further above the field than their counterparts at any other position. 

How will this affect the way I draft Running Backs in 2014-15 

Once again last year the first round of drafts was dominated by running backs with, on average, 9 of 12 first round picks being from the running back position.  I expect that this year will be a lot of the same.  However, with the number of rookies who came on strong last year and with how much 2nd year RBs struggled some of the RBs who are going to be first round picks this year will be just as risky as they turned out to be last year.  If I go into my drafts looking to draft a top 12 RB I have to expect the turnover rate of about 50% to be reality again.  With that being said, the top 3 RBs in almost every league last year were Charles, McCoy, and Forte and there is one thing that was true for each of these players coming into the 2013-14 season.  Each of these 3 RBs had coaching changes prior to last season that favored the run.  I will be on the lookout this year for other coaching changes that should favor running backs and take that into account when deciding who to draft.

Of those 9 RBs on average that were drafted in the first round of PPR drafts last year over half (5) of them failed to perform in the top 20 at the RB position.  So with regards to the running back position there can be a lot of buyer beware situations.  Even though it is impossible to win or lose your league on your first pick, it is difficult to dig yourself out of the hole of a first round bust.

Of the top 10 running backs in a PPR last year on average; 3 were drafted in the first round, 2 in the second, 1 in the third, 1 in the fourth, 1 in the fifth and 2 went outside of the first 8 rounds.  With the wide range of ADPs inside the top ten finishers it is becoming less important to go running back early in drafts, but it is important to hit on the running backs you do draft.  

Top 10 RBs (STANDARD)	POINTS	PPG	ADP BY ROUND
Jamaal Charles	308	20.53	1st ROUND ADP
LeSean McCoy	279	17.41	2nd ROUND ADP
Matt Forte	263	16.46	3rd ROUND ADP
Marshwan Lynch	239	14.96	4th ROUND ADP
Knowshon Moreno	237	14.79	5th ROUND ADP
DeMarco Murray	205	14.65
Adrian Peterson	204	14.55
Eddie Lacy	208	13.38
Chris Johnson	198	12.39
Fred Jackson	188	11.73

The top 4 or 5 players in my overall rankings this year will likely be from the running back position, but from there I expect more variety than in previous years just because of the uncertainty at the position and the volatile nature of the position to be a boom or a bust.