2013-14 NFL Season in Review (Quaterback Edition)

An Evaluation of Pre-Season ADP and Post-Season Fantasy Points Results

As the saying goes, "Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it".  Therefore, the insight and knowledge that can be gained from reviewing this past fantasy season should create better analysis for this upcoming NFL season.  This article will serve as a starting point for this upcoming NFL season by taking a look back at what last season’s average draft position (ADP) was for individual players and comparing that to where each player ended the season in total fantasy points and in fantasy points per game (PPG).  This overview is meant to give a 30,000 foot view of the fantasy football landscape to give an idea of how to approach draft strategy for this upcoming NFL season.  

So what did I learn from reviewing this past season’s fantasy results and comparing where each player finished to their pre-season ADP (Average Draft Position)?

This article will be divided into 4 parts, one examining each major offensive position for fantasy (QB, RB, WR, and TE).  This section will cover what I learned at the quarterback position.

Quarterbacks

For the quarterback position I will be utilizing a pretty standard scoring system: 4 points per passing TD, 6 points per Rushing TD, 1 point for every 10 yards rushing and 1 point for every 25 yards passing.  

The first thing that became apparent to me when reviewing the QB position is that the QB’s who were widely considered elite for fantasy last season (Manning, Rodgers, Brees, and Newton) were elite when they were on the field.  All 4 ended the season in the top 5 in PPG, and only Rodgers, who missed 7 games last year, did not finish in the top 5 in total points.  All 4 of these QBs were drafted in the first 3 rounds of drafts prior to the 2013-14 season, and only Newton could be drafted outside of the first 2 rounds.  The only other QB to wedge his way into the top 5 in PPG was Nick Foles who exploded onto the scene when he took over for Michael Vick in Philadelphia.  Foles, who played 13 games as the starter for the Eagles, finished as the #12 quarterback while playing in 3 fewer games than most of his competition.  On a PPG basis Foles was the only QB who was not perceived to be elite prior to the start of the 2013-14 season who finished in the top 5 in PPG, finishing 3^rd. 

Player	Average PPG	Average Draft Position	Draft among QBs
Peyton Manning	25.62	19	3
Drew Brees	22.36	11	2
Nick Foles	19.67	184	32
Aaron Rodgers	18.83	10	1
Cam Newton	18.6	34	5

The breakdown on a PPG basis at the quarterback position shows some significant gaps in PPG between the top QBs, and shows how top heavy the QB position was this year.  Peyton Manning who had one of the greatest fantasy football seasons of any player, let alone any QB, finished the season with 410 fantasy points in this scoring system which gave him a 25.62 PPG average.  The next closest QB to that production was Drew Brees who fell behind Manning by 52 total points or 3.26 PPG.  The 3^rd ranked QB in PPG, Nick Foles, fell 2.69 PPG behind Brees which is over 5 PPG behind Manning.  This difference is the largest gap that we’ll see among the top 2 or 3 at any position, but that is rightfully so since QBs on average score more than any other position and Manning had a year that has not been seen since Tom Brady’s 50 touchdown season.  Cam Newton, who was the 3^rd ranked QB in total fantasy points, fell behind Brees, the 2^nd ranked QB in total points, by 3.76 PPG.  This 3.76 PPG gap was larger than the gap between Newton and the 16^th ranked QB Ryan Tannehill (who was 21^st in PPG), who were only separated by 3.7 PPG.  This shows how drastically above the field Manning and Brees performed this past year.

After the top 5 QBs in PPG and the top 3 finishers in total points at QB things get interesting.  The 6^th and 7^th finishers in PPG at QB, who were the 4^th and 5^th finishers in total points, were relatively off the radar prior to their shocking 2013-14 performances.  Andy Dalton and Phillip Rivers were both drafted on average outside the top 100 in fantasy drafts and outside of the top 12 at the quarterback position.  Neither were considered fantasy starters prior to the start of the season, but both outperformed Matt Ryan and Tom Brady (who were on average 3^rd round draft picks) by more than 2 PPG.   From 6-10 at the QB position we have 5 guys who were expected to finish right about where they did.  All 5 were 6 round draft picks or higher in ADP, and performed close to or exceeded the expectations set for where they would finish among the QB landscape.

QB	SEASON POINTS	PPG
Peyton Manning	410	25.62
Drew Brees	358	22.36
Nick Foles	256	19.67
Aaron Rodgers	169	18.83
Cam Newton	298	18.6
Andy Dalton	288	18
Phiilp Rivers	287	17.96
Andrew Luck	285	17.79
Tony Romo	259	17.26
Mathew Stafford	275	17.18
Sam Bradford	119	16.94
Russell Wilson	270	16.89
Alex Smith	253	16.88
Josh McCown	134	16.76
Colin Kaepernick	264	16.52
Robert Griffin III	211	16.23
Ben Roethlisberger	259	16.18
Tom Brady	248	15.51
Matt Ryan	248	15.51
Ryan Fitzpatrick	167	15.15
Ryan Tannehill	238	14.9
Jay Cutler	163	14.79
Carson Palmer	217	13.58
Terrelle Pryor	144	13.05
EJ Manuel	129	12.9
Joe Flacco	204	12.72
Mike Glennon	158	12.16
Geno Smith	194	12.11
Chad Henne	161	10.76
Eli Manning	170	10.65

 Conclusion on Quarterbacks

From what we saw from last year the value at the quarterback position tended to be quite top heavy with Payton Manning and Drew Brees far above the pack.  From a PPG perspective the QBs who were drafted the highest in ADP (Rodgers, Brees, Manning, and Newton), with the exception of Brady, all performed like elite QB options when they were on the field.  The difference between having one of the most elite two, Manning and Brees, and having Newton was a larger difference than the benefit Newton was over the field (any other starting QB).  This, to me, has reinstated some value in the elite QBs even with the expansion of the quarterback position to have more quality producers than ever before. 

How to draft Quarterbacks in 2014-15

Elite QBs are difference makers for fantasy. While acknowledging that a season like the one Peyton Manning had last year is unlikely to happen again, having Brees be that far above the rest of the field along with Manning shows that an elite QB can make a difference for any fantasy team.  I, personally, use to be a firm believer in the wait on quarterback approach, but with this information the value of the elite QBs places them into a position were their value is too great to pass up.  The benefit of having one of the elite guys on a week to week basis is worth the cost of a high draft pick.  However, after the elite QBs go off the board I think being the last player to select a QB is going to be the way to go.  Taking a few QBs late (2-4) and playing the match-ups or hoping one goes off like a Foles did this year is the route to take.  So when you’re looking at drafting QB it’s best to be one of the first or one of the last in your draft.